The HDB resale market took a turn for the worse in July by dropping 0.5%. According to SRX Property, the SRX Property Index declined from 135.7 to 134.9. This came after three straight months at 135.7.
Some market observers were hoping on hope that the latest plateau of 135.7 was a turning point in which prices would start to inch up. Not the case as July proved. Now all one can hope for in August is a return to 135.7, settling for the fact that stagnation is better than decline.
Observations:
- HDB resale prices dropped 0.5% in July. HDB resale prices slipped in July 2015 compared to June 2015. Resale prices of HDB 3 Room Flats remained flat while prices of HDB 4, 5 Room and Executive Flats went down by 0.7%, 1.2% and 0.9% respectively.
According to the SRX Property Price Index for HDB Resale:
- Year-on-year, prices have dropped 4.3% from July 2014;
- Prices have declined 11.4% since the peak in April 2013;
- Price change in June 2015 has been revised from a 0.1% increase to no change.
According to the SRX Property Price Sub-Indices for HDB Resale:
- In July 2015, HDB resale prices decreased by 0.1% in mature estates and 0.9% in non-mature estates;
- Year-on-year, prices in mature estates have declined 2.6% from July 2014;
- Year-on-year, prices in non-mature estates have declined 5.5% from July 2014;
- Resale volume decreased. According to HDB resale data compiled by SRX Property, 1,552 HDB resale flats were sold in July 2015, a 9.2% decrease from 1,709 transacted units in June 2015.
- Year-on-year, resale volume increased by 15.6% compared with 1,342 units resold in July 2014;
- Resale volume is down 57.5% compared to its peak of 3,649 units in May 2010.
- Overall median Transaction Over X-Value (T-O-X) is negative in July. According to SRX Property, HDB resale market sentiment is NEGATIVE 1000 in July 2015. The median T-O-X for HDB measures whether people are overpaying or underpaying the SRX Property X-Value estimated market value.
- Overall Median T-O-X was NEGATIVE $1000 in July 2015, down from POSITIVE $1,000 in JUNE 2015;
- Median T-O-X for HDB 3 Room, 4 Room and Executive flats in July 2015 saw NEGATIVE $1,000, NEGATIVE $1000, and NEGATIVE $10,500 respectively. 5 Room flats posted a POSTIVE $1900 median T-O-X.
- Bukit Merah posted the highest median T-O-X. For HDB towns having more than 10 resale transactions with T-O-X in July 2015, Bukit Merah reported the highest median TOX of $6,000 followed by $4,000 in Ang Mo Kio.
This means that majority of the buyers in these towns has purchased units above the computer-generated market value.
- Among relatively active towns, Pasir Ris posted the most Negative median T-O-X. Among HDB towns having more than 10 resale transactions with T-O-X in July 2015, the lowest median T-O-X were in Pasir Ris and Bukit Panjang at NEGATIVE $11,000 and NEGATIVE $6,700 respectively.
This means that majority of the buyers in these towns has purchased units below the computer-generated market value.
Source: SRX (6 Aug 2015)