Prices dropped on low volume but sales in November 2014 were 6.6% higher than sales in 2013. On top of that, the median Transactions-over-X Value (T-O-X) improved to zero.
Analysis summary:
"When sales volume is this low, macro-analysis becomes less relevant and individual transactions are more pronounced," said Sam Baker, CEO and co-founder of SRX Property. "On the macro level, we can project, with reasonable certainty, that demand will continue to be anemic and prices will be relatively stubborn until there is a significant change to Cooling Measures, interest rates, supply, or an external shock, or some combination of the above. Until then, the action is at the street level and requires micro-analysis. 50% of buyers in November paid above the X-Value for their unit and 50% paid below it. This means that not all buyers and sellers are being impacted by the Cooling Measures in the same way. A good percentage of expert agents and clients are using data to transact the right home at the right price in their particular project or street."
Observations:
- Non-landed Private Residential Resale prices slipped by 1.1%. Non-landed Private Residential Resale prices decreased 1.1% in November compared to October 2014. Prices dropped by 1.3% in RCR and OCR, while CCR saw a slight price drop of 0.1%.
According to the SRX Non-landed Private Residential Price Index:
- Prices, on low volume, pushed below the support level established since Jul 2014
- Year-on-year, prices have dropped 3.4% from November 2013;
- Prices have declined 6.3% since the recent peak in Jan 2014.
- The revised index for October remains unchanged at 0.4% price increase compared to September.
- Resale volume shrank by 22.4%. According to SRX Non-landed Private Residential Resale data compiled by SRX Property, an estimated 388 Non-landed Private Residential units were resold in November, a 22.4% decrease from 500 transacted units in October.
- Year-on-year, resale volume was 6.6% higher compared with 364 units resold in November 2013;
- Resale volume is down 81.1% compared to its peak of 2,050 units resold in April 2010.
- Overall median Transaction Over X-Value (T-O-X) reached zero. According to SRX Property, the median T-O-X for Non-landed Private Residential reached a neutral level in November. The median T-O-X for Non-landed Private Residential measures whether people are overpaying or underpaying the SRX Property X-Value estimated market value.
- The median T-O-X was $0 in November 2014;
- This is the first time non-negative median T-O-X is reported since Oct 2013.
- Districts 9, 22 and 11 posted high median T-O-X. For districts with more than 10 resale transactions in November 2014, district 9 had the highest median T-O-X of $80,000, followed by $30,000 in district 22 and $15,000 in district 11.
This means that majority of the buyers in these districts has purchased units above the computer-generated market value.
- Among relatively active districts, District 5 posts the most Negative median T-O-X. Among districts with more than 10 resale transactions, the lowest median T-O-X was in district 5 with T-O-X of NEGATIVE $40,000, followed by NEGATIVE $20,000 in district 16, and NEGATIVE $15,000 at district 19.
This means that majority of the buyers in these districts has purchased units below the computer-generated market value.
Source: SRX (09 Dec 2014)