Prices of private homes likely to stay depressed - SRX

There will not be a major correction next year but factors from oversupply to lending curbs will keep prices of private homes and executive condominiums (EC) depressed, say analysts. They also warn that any let up on cooling measures seems unlikely in the near term as the price falls have not affected most owners.

Mr Desmond Sim, CBRE research head for South-east Asia, told The Straits Times yesterday: "Most developers are still propped up by holding power as well as land prices, which continued to be quite high over the past year.

"Unless developers are willing to take a big cut in profits, new sale prices should be quite stubborn."

Prices of new homes could fall 3 to 5 per cent next year although projects with many unsold units may cut even more, according to Ms Alice Tan, head of research at Knight Frank Singapore.

The prospects are no better for ECs, with average prices coming down from a high of over $800 per sq ft (psf) in the first half of this year to $780 psf in this half, said R'ST Research director Ong Kah Seng. Average EC pricing next year should be lower, at $750 to $780 psf, he added.

Unsold stock is a key issue bedevilling the private market, with around 24,000 new units languishing in the market. Apart from the amount of unsold units, developers will be under increasing pressure to sell due to Qualifying Certificate penalties and the Additional Buyers' Stamp Duty (ABSD), he added.

Developers have been trimming prices all year as market realities began to bite. Median prices at The Panorama, for example, fell from $1,343 psf at initial launch in January last year to $1,226 psf in October, noted Mr Wong Xian Yang, OrangeTee research manager.

Sims Urban Oasis prices were down from $1,397 psf at the February launch to $1,285 psf in October.

It is clear that buyers - governed by both the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) and ABSD - are being more selective.

Mr Elson Poo, general manager of marketing and sales at Frasers Centrepoint Homes, said they are focusing on projects that offer attractive pricing as well as other value propositions such as lifestyle concepts or prime locations.

Frasers Centrepoint has sold around 760 units so far this year, largely thanks to the popular North Park Residences.

Developer MCC Land has also chalked up a tidy number of sales this year, up 55 per cent from last year to 354 units. If MCC Land includes development projects that it manages for Hao Yuan Investment, its total sales would be 487, similar to 470 units sold last year.

While slightly fewer new private home sales took place this year - the tally of 6,619 units in the first 10 months was 4 per cent lower than last year's - the unsold stock of private homes has been falling. There were 24,149 units unsold in the third quarter, an 18 per cent fall from the same time last year and 25 per cent down compared with two years ago, noted Ms Tan of Knight Frank. "The adjustment of prices, albeit at a moderate level from about 2 to 3 per cent discount, coupled with pent-up demand, especially from local homebuyers, has helped improve take-up rates in the last two quarters," she added.

In the resale market, prices at the top five projects this year have fallen between 6 and 11 per cent from 2013, according to OrangeTee, although prices rose at one of the developments.

Resale volumes may have increased but rents are still expected to remain soft due to the many completions expected next year and limited growth in foreign labour numbers, said Mr Wong of OrangeTee.

EC developers could get more desperate to sell where there are more than 300 unsold units at a project, such as Sol Acres, The Criterion and The Terrace, said Mr Ku Swee Yong, Century 21 chief executive officer.

"The raised income ceiling of $14,000 (earlier this year) does not seem to have brought in many buyers," he said.

Overall, private home prices are down about 8 per cent from their last peak in the third quarter of 2013.

The Straits Times

Source: SRX (10 Dec 2015)

Resale prices of non-landed homes in CCR and fringe fare better - SRX

RESALE prices of non-landed private homes in Core Central Region (CCR) and the city-fringe have been more resilient so far this year compared to those in the suburbs.

Based on the November flash estimates released by SRX Property on Tuesday, its price index for resale non-landed private homes in CCR rose 1.6 per cent from December 2014 to November 2015. Over the same period, the index for Rest of Central Region (RCR) appreciated 2.3 per cent. However, the index for Outside Central Region (OCR) slipped 2.6 per cent over the same period.

OrangeTee's senior manager of research and consultancy, Wong Xian Yang, highlighted that the relatively better performance in the CCR and RCR so far this year has to be seen against the fact that these two regions suffered bigger price drops last year than the OCR. "As pr

"However, the price recovery in these two regions may not be sustainable due to the big completion numbers for private homes across all three geographical regions next year," said Mr Wong.

Still, prices in OCR can be expected to come under greater pressure going ahead as 55 per cent of the 22,351 private homes slated for completion next year will be located in the suburbs, he added.

On an islandwide basis, rental demand is expected to remain tempered due to the huge completion numbers amid subdued inflow of foreigners. "The weakness in the rental market will likely spill over to prices," Mr Wong said.

Based on SRX's November flash estimates, its overall resale price index of non-landed private homes rose 0.6 per cent in November over October. This contrasts with a 0.6 per cent month-on-month drop in October. SRX Property said there was no revision to the October 2015 price index.

Based on the November flash estimate, SRX Property's overall resale price index for non-landed private homes was down about 1.3 per cent year on year. Against the peak in January 2014, November 2015 prices were down 7.0 per cent.

The price index for CCR rose 3 per cent month on month in November after easing 1.8 per cent in October. In RCR, prices advanced 1.3 per cent last month after falling 0.8 per cent in October. However, in the OCR, SRX's price index retreated 0.8 per cent last month after remaining unchanged in October.

ERA Realty key executive officer Eugene Lim estimates an overall price decline of about 2.5 per cent this year. "Moving forward, we expect the gradual price decrease to continue into 2016, as the high number of completions and policy measures continue to weigh down prices."

SRX Property said an estimated 488 non-landed private homes were resold last month - reflecting a 2.8 per cent drop from the 502 units resold in October 2015.

Year on year, resale volume in November 2015 was 31.2 per cent more than the 372 units resold in November 2014. However, compared to the peak volume of 2,050 units in April 2010, the latest figure is down 76.2 per cent.

ERA's Mr Lim is "quietly optimistic" about the longer-term perspective for the resale private housing market. "Increasingly, we have observed that a greater proportion of buyers are turning to the resale market when looking to purchase a private apartment or condo for owner-occupation. Their reasons for doing so include lower prices and higher bargaining power. Moreover, resale units are comparatively larger than units launched by developers nowadays," Mr Lim noted.

Overall for 2015, ERA expects about 6,000 non-landed private homes to change hands in the resale market, an increase of some 20 per cent over the total volume for 2014.

"Building on this momentum, we should see a better 2016 in terms of transaction volume as the market continues to act rationally," Mr Lim added.

SRX Property said the overall median transaction over X-value (TOX) was zero in November after posting negative S$3,000 in October 2015. Among districts that posted at least 10 resale deals last month, prime District 9, which includes places such as Orchard, Cairnhill and River Valley, posted the worst median TOX, to the tune of negative S$70,000.

The median TOX measures how much people are underpaying or overpaying against the computer-generated estimated value or the so-called X-value.

District 15 - which includes places like Katong and Meyer Road - posted a median TOX of negative S$25,000, while District 16 - which includes the likes of Upper East Coast and Bedok - had the highest median TOX, of positive S$35,000.

ices in these two regions fell more previously, centrally located properties have become more attractive and we may see demand starting to gravitate towards them.

The Business Times
Kalpana Rashiwala

Source: SRX (09 Dec 2015)

Rents for private homes, HDB flats down in November: SRX

THE residential leasing market in Singapore remained weak last month, with rents for both private non-landed homes and Housing & Development Board (HDB) flats on a continued slide compared to October.

Rents for private non-landed homes fell 1.1 per cent last month compared to a month ago, according to flash estimates by SRX Property.

Units in Core Central Region, Rest of Central Region and Outside Central Region experienced a decrease in rents of 0.7 per cent, 2 per cent and 0.7 per cent respectively.

Year-on-year, rents in November were 5.6 per cent lower.

Some 3,304 rental transactions involving private non-landed homes were inked in November, down 7.8 per cent month on month and 12.6 per cent higher than a year ago.

For HDB flats, rents were down 0.5 per cent from a month ago in November, with three, four, five-room and executive flats posting declines of 0.5 per cent, 0.1 per cent, 0.7 per cent and 2.5 per cent respectively.

Year-on-year, HDB rents in November 2015 were down by 4.1 per cent from November 2014.

But HDB rental transaction volumes marked a 6.3 per cent month-on-month uptick in November to 1,822 flats, and a 3.9 per cent rise from November last year.

The Straits Times
Lynette Khoo

Source: SRX (09 Dec 2015)

Property market perking up - SRX

The mood in the real estate sector has been mostly gloomy for a while but sentiment has clearly improved from this time last year with talk that prices could start bouncing off the bottom.

There were 5,510 private property resales in the 11 months to Nov 30, up 20.8 per cent from the same period last year, according to data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA).

Public housing resales are up as well with about 19,000 transactions expected for this year, around 10 per cent ahead of last year, said PropNex Realty.

PropNex chief executive Mohd Ismail said: "Prices are generally consolidating. People are confident that even with all the cooling measures in place, the property market is not going to correct very much more."

The figures indicate that most of the price declines appear to have occurred last year.

Resale prices of non-landed properties dropped 1.2 per cent in the first 11 months of this year, according to flash estimates from SRX Property yesterday.

In comparison, they fell 4 per cent over the whole of last year.

Resale prices even rose 0.6 per cent last month over October, following a 0.6 per cent month- on-month decrease in October.

While last month's change could be a monthly fluctuation and prices may fall this month, it does not negate the fact that there is a "notable turnaround of events", noted Savills research head Alan Cheong.

"Many analysts expected resale prices to continue falling well into next year... (but) buyers are coming back to the resale market, probably seeing value for money after waiting for two years for prices to crash, and they did not."

Similarly, HDB resale prices moderated by less than 2 per cent for the year so far, compared to the full-year fall of over 6 per cent last year.

They rose about 0.4 per cent last month from October, thanks to a 0.5 per cent rise for four-roomers and an increase of 1.4 per cent for five-room homes, according to SRX estimates last week.

"HDB prices may not even fall next year and could grow as much as 1 per cent for the year," said Mr Ismail. "With increased transactions, there is no reason for prices to continue to slide."

Private home resales were up across all three regions - they rose 31 per cent year-on-year to 1,226 units in the core central region for the first 11 months, according to URA data.

Mr Cheong of Savills noted that this area's strength, which began in December last year, began to taper off in August when the haze sent foreign buyers shopping for properties elsewhere.

However, resale volumes were also up elsewhere. Transactions rose 21.5 per cent to 1,650 units in the city fringes and 16.1 per cent to 2,634 units in the suburbs, in the first 11 months.

Many buyers are purchasing for their own use and have come to appreciate that resale properties tend to be larger, said Mr Eugene Lim, ERA Realty key executive officer.

Take a buyer with $1.2 million. He could get a three-bedroom unit at 1,300 sq ft in older 99-year leasehold condos, but the same amount could buy a three-bedroom unit of just over 900 sq ft at a new launch.

Many are buying near schools or their workplaces and are increasingly showing interest in regional centres, including Jurong and Tampines, Mr Lim added.

There could be an even higher number of resale transactions next year, while any more price declines should be marginal, experts said.

Source: SRX (09 Dec 2015)

Resale prices of non-landed private homes up 0.6% - AsiaOne

SINGAPORE - Resale prices of non-landed private homes rose by 0.6 per cent in November from the month before, SRX Property said in a flash report today.

Prices in the Core Central Region (CCR) and Rest of Central Region (RCR) rose by 3.0 per cent and 1.3 per cent, respectively, while the Outside Central Region (OCR) posted a price decrease of 0.8 per cent.

Year-on-year, prices in November 2015 were 1.3 per cent lower than in November 2014.

According to data compiled by SRX Property, an estimated 488 non-landed private homes were sold on the resale market in November. This is a 2.8 per cent drop from the 502 units re-sold in October.

Year-on-year, resale volume in November was 31.2 per cent higher compared to 372 units re-sold a year before.

ljessica@sph.com.sg

Tuesday, Dec 08, 2015

AsiaOne

5-room Punggol flat sold for $760,000 - AsiaOne

A premium five-room flat in Punggol fetched $760,000 on the resale market last month, setting a new record for the non-mature estate.

The price was possible as the flat is not only larger than usual, but also has a rare loft design, said the agents behind the deal. "The unit itself is unique," said PropNex agent Godfrey Chan, who marketed the flat with his partner Rosalind Teo.

According to SRX Property's records, it is the biggest sum paid for a Housing Board (HDB) five-room flat in Punggol. Such prices are more usual for popular mature estates such as Queenstown.

The previous Punggol record, set in 2012, was $650,000. But the resale market has cooled since then.

In the past 12 months, five-room units in Punggol have been resold for as little as $355,000 and no more than $544,000, until now.

As a premium flat, the $760,000 unit is larger than usual, at 147 sq m compared to the typical 110 sq m.

Located around the 16th to 18th floor, it is one of just 14 loft units in the whole of Treelodge@Punggol, the HDB's first eco-friendly project.

With its rare design, "it was possible for the owners to easily double their initial investment", said Mr Chan. Loft units at Treelodge @Punggol were priced at up to $383,000 when the HDB launched them in 2007.

Dennis Wee Realty agent Tammy Ho said her client, the buyer, was originally not interested in Punggol. But seeing the flat in person was enough to seal the deal. Rarity was also a factor, she added. "Even at this price, you might not be able to get such units any more."

Treelodge@Punggol's green features include energy-efficient lighting, solar panels, and blocks positioned for optimum wind flow.

Flats in the project have only recently begun to reach the five-year minimum occupation period, meaning that they can now be resold.

At least three four-room flats there have also been sold since October, for $520,000 to $548,888 - the highest in the last 12 months.

Prices for another premium HDB project in Punggol, Coralinus, come close. Four four-room units there each fetched $520,000 or more this year.

janiceh@sph.com.sg

This article was first published on Dec 5, 2015. 

Saturday, Dec 05, 2015

Janice Heng

The Straits Times

Source: AsiaOne

Small units lead price falls for completed condos - AsiaOne

SMALL units have led prices falls for completed apartments and condos year to date as well as on a year-on-year basis, according to National University of Singapore's October flash estimates for its Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI).

The series - minted by the university's Institute of Real Estate Studies (IRES) and which tracks prices of completed non-landed private homes - shows that the subindex for small units (up to 506 sq ft) islandwide eased 3.1 per cent between December last year and October 2015. This is a bigger decline than the 2.3 per cent and 2.1 per cent falls respectively over the same period for the respective subindices for Central and Non-Central regions (both excluding small units). The Overall SRPI has slipped 2.2 per cent year to date.

On a year-on-year basis, the October flash estimates translate to a 4.6 per cent drop for the small units subindex, again outpacing declines of 4.4 per cent in the Central Region, 2.7 per cent in Non-Central Region and 3.5 per cent in the Overall indices.

Savills Singapore research head Alan Cheong attributes the trend of small units posting the worst price performance to a more severe rental erosion for shoebox units than for other apartments.

Over the past 18 months, companies have been reducing their housing budgets for foreign staff as part of overall cost-cutting measures.

"Increasingly foreigners being posted here are singles or even if they have a family, they come to Singapore alone; this profile of tenants may find it makes more economical sense to rent a room in, say, a two or three-bedroom apartment as the cost is lower than renting an entire shoebox unit," said Mr Cheong. This is creating downward rental pressure on shoebox apartments which in turn has a knock-on effect on prices, he added.

"Moreover, we are seeing an increasing number of overseas nationals coming here to work on a short-term/project basis - in which case budget hotels and airbnb also come in to play. All these trends are removing a traditional source of demand for the residential leasing market," he added.

NUS's October flash estimates show that islandwide prices of completed small apartments and condo units fell 0.6 per cent month-on-month in October, following a drop of 0.7 per cent in September (based on the revised index value for that month).

The subindex for Central Region posted a 0.3 per cent month-on-month gain in October - contrasting with September's 0.3 per cent drop. IRES defines Central Region as Districts 1-4 (including the financial district and Sentosa Cove) and the traditional prime Districts 9, 10 and 11.

In the Non-Central Region, prices were unchanged in October, after climbing 0.6 per cent in September.

The Overall SRPI edged up 0.1 per cent in October, following a 0.3 per cent month-on-month rise in September. R'ST Research director Ong Kah Seng described the price gains for these two months as "more of blips, rather a confirmed stabilisation or beginning of a price rebound" - given the enduring impact of the total debt servicing ratio (TDSR) framework and the surge in new private home completions from 2014.

Agreeing, OrangeTee's senior manager of research and consultancy, Wong Xian Yang, noted that multiple headwinds continue to prevail for the residential property market on the whole. "A possible reason for the minor price increases in the Overall SRPI for two consecutive months could be due to increased demand in the resale market, where buyers tend to have more negotiating power - compared to picking up a unit from a developer."

Downward pressure on prices of completed homes is set to continue as rents are likely to keep heading south - on the back of 22,351 private homes slated for completion next year, he added. Morever, with rising interest rates, some over-leveraged investors may face difficulty servicing their mortgages if they cannot find tenants and be forced to sell their properties.

Mr Ong of R'ST said the current pace of marginal price declines is likely to persist into 2016 but there could be a "blow-out in prices" of completed private residential properties, with about 5-10 per cent price declines per quarter for, say, two quarters. "This could take place in Q2 or Q3 2016 and attract opportunistic buyers - after which prices may rebound quickly," he predicted.

He also highlighted that by around mid-2016, more owners would have cleared the four-year holding period to avoid paying seller's stamp duty upon resale of their private residential property. "Those who rushed in to buy private condos from developers in 2011-2012 - and who face weak leasing demand, especially for suburban condos, may be more willing to cut prices and move on."

This article was first published on December 1, 2015. 

Wednesday, Dec 02, 2015

Kalpana Rashiwala

The Business Times

Source: AsiaOne

Prices of private resale homes inch up - AsiaOne

Prices of completed non-landed private homes are showing signs of stabilising after falling for five straight months, but downward pressures remain.

Their values rose 0.1 per cent in October over September, after rising 0.3 per cent in September, according to flash estimates out yesterday for the NUS Singapore Residential Price Index.

The modest rally stems from increasing buyer interest in resale properties over the past half year as developers cut back on launches.

There were 1,400 resale transactions of private non-landed homes in the third quarter with a total value of $2.66 billion, up from 1,153 valued at $1.91 billion a year back, noted SLP International executive director Nicholas Mak.

ERA Realty key executive officer Eugene Lim said the pick-up is partly reflected in the company's sales performance. "Last year, when the resale market was poor, the company's top achievers were mostly agents who focused on developer projects. This year, many of (the top performers) are agents who are more into resale properties."

The resale market is also seeing rising demand from owner-occupiers who may have immediate housing needs, he added.

"But in general, price quantum is still the key driving force; the sweet spot is below $1.5 million."

The slight uptick in October was supported by a 0.3 per cent rise in prices of completed non-landed homes in the central region - defined as districts 1 to 4 and 9 to 11. However, the prices had fallen 0.3 per cent in September.

Prices of units outside this zone were unchanged in October after rising 0.6 per cent in September.

Prices of small units of up to 506 sq ft fell 0.6 per cent in October, after falling 0.7 per cent in the preceding month.

"Values of small units are getting hammered as more of them are completed and some owners face challenges in renting them out," said SLP's Mr Mak.

Experts expect more slight month-to-month fluctuations in the SRPI but the general trend is still downwards, on the back of rising completions.

This article was first published on Dec 1, 2015.

Wednesday, Dec 02, 2015

Rennie Whang

The Straits Times

Source: AsiaOne

HDB flat owners will pay lower property tax next year - AsiaOne

SINGAPORE - All HDB flat owners will pay lower or no property tax next year while eight in 10 private residential property owners will pay lower property tax in 2016, the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore (IRAS) announced on Monday (Nov 30).

All 1- and 2-room HDB flat owner-occupiers and 28,200 3-room HDB flat owner occupiers will not have to pay any property tax when the revised annual values take effect from Jan 1.

According to IRAS, the tax savings for HDB flats will range from 9 per cent to 24 per cent, compared to property tax paid in 2015. Of the private residential properties with reduced annual values, more than 80 per cent will see tax savings of between 3 per cent and 20 per cent.

Property owners can use a new e-Service - 'e-Property Tax Balance' - to check if there is any tax payable on their properties and whether the current payment mode is by GIRO.

IRAS added that all property tax has to be paid by Jan 31. A 5 per cent penalty will be imposed on those who fail to pay. Property owners with financial difficulties are advised to contact IRAS at 1800-356 8300 before the due date to discuss a suitable payment plan.

debwong@sph.com.sg

Source: AsiaOne (30 Nov 2015)